Commercial Construction Forecast Predicts Strong 2015 and 2016
January 30, 2015

With 2014 showing signs of recovery in the nonresidential building market and finishing at higher spending levels than expected, the positive trend is expected to continue in 2015 and 2016, according to the AIA’s Consensus Construction Forecast.

The report highlights big demand for hotels and office buildings as the primary driver of growth in the commercial/industrial sector, while the institutional sector will see gains due to growth in education and healthcare. The report projects overall nonresidential spending to increase 7.7% in 2015 and 8.2% in 2016.

“By far, the most significant driver that will fuel greater expansion in the marketplace is the revival in the institutional sector, especially with growing demand for new healthcare and education facilities, which alone traditionally account for a third of spending on new building construction,” says Kermit Baker, AIA chief economist. 

Market Segment Concensus Growth Forecasts

Commercial, Industrial 2015 2016
Hotels 13.1% 9.2%
Retail 10.5% 11.5%
Office Buildings 9.2% 10.8%
Industrial Facilities 7.8% 8.7%


Institutional 2015 2016
Amusement, Recreation 9.9% 7.5%
Healthcare Facilities 5.2% 7.8%
Education 2.8% 5.8%
Public Safety -0.2% 3.1%
Religious -1.7% 1.3%

For the full report, visit AIA's website