On the Rise

Jan. 9, 2002
Forecast 2002 - Part 2 of 3
According to F.W. Dodge’s Construction Outlook 2002, the main points for this year’s construction market include the following:• Single-family housing will retreat through early 2002, as home sales and construction are adversely affected by the weak job market and diminished consumer confidence. When uncertainty eases, homebuyer demand will be able to show a greater response to low mortgage rates. The full year is projected at 1.175 million units (F.W. Dodge basis), a 2-percent decline from 2000, which translates into no change in dollar terms.• Public works construction will advance 2 percent, as continued expansion for highways and bridges counters a slower pace for other public works categories.• Electric utilities, following robust growth the previous four years, will begin to settle back as the post-deregulation surge in new power plant construction eases.• Income properties will slide an additional 3 percent in dollar volume, corresponding to a 5-percent drop in square footage. The steepest decline is projected for hotels, while stores, warehouses, and offices will experience more moderate retrenchment. Apartment construction is the income property type most likely to avoid a decline, since it continues to be viewed favorably as a target by the real estate finance community.• Institutional building will advance 3 percent, due to further expansion for schools combined with a moderate increase for healthcare facilities. However, reduced contracting is expected for courthouses, churches, amusement-related projects, and airport terminals.• Manufacturing building is expected to edge up 2 percent, as its extended four-year decline reaches bottom in early 2002. The category will still be extremely weak by historical standards, down 35 percent in dollar terms from its most recent peak in 1997.2002 New Construction Potentials for Non-Residential Buildings
Floor Area (Millions of Square Feet)
Building Type2000 Actual2001 Preliminary 2002 Forecast% Change 2002/2001Stores and Shopping Centers308265240-9Office Buildings300253240-5Hotels and Motels705950-15Other Commercial Buildings503420378-10Manufacturing Buildings111100102+2Total Commercial and Manufacturing1,2921,0971,010-8.Educational Buildings252268275+3Healthcare Facilities888083+4Other Institutional Buildings237220212-4Total Institutional and Other577568570-.Total Non-Residential1,8691,6651,580-5Multi-Family Housing2000 Actual2001 Preliminary 2002 Forecast% Change 2002/2001Thousands of Units412405415+2Floor Area (Millions of Square Feet)465459470+2SOURCE: F.W. DODGE CONSTRUCTION OUTLOOK 2002Go to part 3 - The Beat Goes OnLinda K. Monroe ([email protected]) is editorial director at Buildings magazine.

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