2026 CRE Outlook: Challenges, Uncertainty, and Reasons for Optimism

What will 2026 bring for commercial real estate professionals? While global trends remain unpredictable, experts are suggesting that opportunities for growth do exist. Survey results from more than 850 C-level CRE leaders in Deloitte’s 2026 Commercial Real Estate Outlook and economic analysis from Colliers’ The 2026 CRE Reset: Stability Through Uncertainty suggest that next year won’t be without its challenges—but there are also reasons to be hopeful.

2025’s Defining Policy Changes

Two major changes to federal policy had a major impact on commercial real estate, according to the Colliers report. First, the effective tariff rate of 2% increased to double digits; Moody’s has said this could add about 1.3 percentage points to inflation and subtract about 1 percentage point from GDP once the tariffs are fully in place.

Also, restrictions on immigration have made it more difficult to expand the labor force, the Colliers report noted. “The number of foreign-born workers decreased by more than a percentage point, resulting in an estimated two million fewer workers than a year earlier,” explained the authors of the Colliers report. “These factors raised costs, limited capacity, and lowered the ‘break-even’ job growth rate to about 50,000 per month, meaning even modest hiring shortfalls now lead to higher unemployment.”

The Federal Reserve reduced rates by 25 basis points in September 2025 and again in October, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell described these cuts as “risk management moves,” saying that future adjustments would be implemented cautiously.

The Outlook According to CRE Professionals

Looking at the next 12-18 months, respondents to the Deloitte survey were less optimistic about the future than they were last year—but they’re still optimistic. The survey revealed that 83% of respondents expected revenues to improve by the end of the year, compared with 88% who held that expectation last year. Across the spending areas covered by the survey—such as operations, office space, and technology—5% fewer respondents plan to increase spending and 8% more respondents plan to keep spending flat. Meanwhile, 68% expect higher expenses this year.

A significant portion—65%—of respondents also expect conditions like rental rates, leasing activity, vacancies, and the cost of capital to improve through 2026, a slight dip from last year (68%). “Despite macroeconomic uncertainties, CRE fundamentals don’t change overnight, and growth is still expected across most asset classes and most geographies,” the Deloitte study noted. The company rated CRE outlook sentiment at 65—less than last year’s high of 68 but significantly above the 2023 rating of just 44, showing that respondents remain optimistic.

Deloitte respondents also said they were wary of macroeconomic trends that could negatively affect their financial performance over the next 12-18 months, identifying capital availability, elevated interest rates, the cost of capital, currency volatility, and changes in tax policy in particular.

Must-Know Trends for 2026

CRE investors and owners can expect these sector-specific trends next year, according to analysis by Deloitte and Colliers.

Data Centers

Demand for locations will likely continue to exceed supply, with developers often finding projects leased before completion, Deloitte explained. However, power, water, and zoning constraints may limit growth in some areas. Central Washington has emerged as a key area for data centers thanks to its lower power costs.

Industrial

Leasing has slowed somewhat, due in part to short-term trade uncertainties, Deloitte noted. But long-term growth is likely, and as onshoring and nearshoring of manufacturing continues, demand for manufacturing and logistics facilities will increase.

Office

At long last, the office sector appears to be recovering. Vacancy rates are approaching their peak, which should mean stabilization is on the way, according to Colliers. Both suburban and downtown office types increased in Deloitte’s property sector rankings for the second consecutive year, with owner and investor interest increasing.

Retail

Retail is one of the most stable performers in CRE, Colliers noted. It will likely remain resilient in 2026 thanks to its well-capitalized tenants and a selective approach to expansion.

Healthcare

The delivery of healthcare is being shaped by a need for convenience and cost efficiency, Colliers explained. In addition, life sciences is also changing due to emerging technologies taking hold, AI driving research, and investment priorities changing.

“The next chapter for commercial real estate could be best suited for prepared realists,” Deloitte noted, emphasizing that CRE leaders need to stay pragmatic in 2026. CRE professionals can keep their portfolios resilient by developing strategic partnerships, deploying AI in places where it demonstrates value, and staying agile.

“Don’t wait for certainty,” Deloitte urged. “Help build it.”